供應鏈瓶頸與高需求並行：北美可再生能源PPA價格攀升的挑戰

在北美，購買低價的可再生能源電力購買協議（PPA）已成為過去，並且未來幾年內價格回落的希望似乎渺茫。Ascend Analytics分析師在周四的專題討論中指出，自2020年初以來，北美市場再未見到每兆瓦時20美元的低價位。根據LevelTen Energy的最新數據，截至2024年第三季度，北美太陽能PPA平均價格為每兆瓦時56.58美元，風能價格更高，達到每兆瓦時65.63美元。

In North America, purchasing low-priced renewable energy power purchase agreements (PPAs) is a thing of the past, and hope for prices to come back down in the next few years seems slim. Ascend Analytics analysts noted during a Thursday panel discussion that the North American market has not seen prices as low as $20 per megawatt hour since the beginning of 2020. According to the latest data from LevelTen Energy, as of the third quarter of 2024, the average North American solar PPA price is $56.58 per megawatt hour, and wind energy prices are even higher, reaching $65.63 per megawatt hour.

Ascend Analytics的營運和戰略總監Brandon Mauch解釋說：「PPA價格在過去一年中大幅波動，主要受供應鏈、關稅和需求推動。雖然我們預期未來價格會有所穩定，但短期內仍將保持在高位。」分析師預測，價格在2030年前不太可能大幅下降，未來市場的穩定需要多方面因素的緩和與改善。

Brandon Mauch, director of operations and strategy at Ascend Analytics, explained: "PPA prices have fluctuated significantly over the past year, mainly driven by the supply chain, tariffs and demand. Although we expect prices to stabilize in the future, they will remain high in the short term." Analysts predict that prices are unlikely to drop significantly before 2030, and future market stability requires the easing and improvement of multiple factors.

供應鏈困境與進口關稅的雙重壓力

在PPA價格攀升的因素中，太陽能領域受到供應鏈瓶頸和新關稅的雙重夾擊。LevelTen Energy運營分析總監Mitchell Reay指出，進口太陽能電池的新關稅以及基礎材料供應短缺，對行業構成了巨大挑戰，並推高了成本。此前供應緊張的電池和變壓器等關鍵設備，現在供應有所改善，但斷路器和開關等設備短缺卻成為新的障礙。Ascend Energy Exchange的董事總經理Rahm Orenstein解釋說，由於供應鏈的不穩定，特定設備的可用性無法得到完全保障。

Supply chain difficulties and the dual pressure of import tariffs

Among the factors contributing to the rise in PPA prices, the solar sector has been hit by supply chain bottlenecks and new tariffs. Mitchell Reay, director of operational analysis at LevelTen Energy, pointed out that new tariffs on imported solar cells and shortages in the supply of basic materials have posed huge challenges to the industry and pushed up costs. Supply of key equipment such as batteries and transformers, which were previously in tight supply, has improved, but shortages of equipment such as circuit breakers and switches have become new obstacles. Rahm Orenstein, managing director of Ascend Energy Exchange, explained that due to the instability of the supply chain, the availability of specific equipment cannot be fully guaranteed.

同時，美國針對中國生產的太陽能電池實施的新一輪關稅，也促使美國開發商加大進口以防未來更嚴格的限制，進一步限制了市場供應。即使面臨關稅和供應瓶頸的困境，Reay表示需求仍然旺盛。數據中心運營商、企業用戶等大買家正在湧入PPA市場，越來越多的中小企業也加入其中，目的是達成他們的可再生能源目標，這種高需求給市場價格帶來了持續的上行壓力。

數據中心的需求尤其顯著，這些設施的運營商更關注快速上線與可靠性，願意支付高價以確保可再生能源的供應。例如，微軟最近的一項交易就是為了支持三哩島核電站的重啟，而其PPA價格遠超過一般零售電價。Orenstein表示，這類數據中心交易顯示出大買家在可再生能源市場的影響力，甚至帶動了整個市場價格的上揚。

At the same time, the new round of tariffs imposed by the United States on solar cells produced in China has also prompted American developers to increase imports to prevent stricter restrictions in the future, further restricting market supply. Even with tariffs and supply bottlenecks, Reay said demand remains strong. Large buyers such as data center operators and enterprise users are pouring into the PPA market, and more and more small and medium-sized enterprises are joining in, aiming to achieve their renewable energy goals. This high demand has brought continuous upward pressure on market prices.

The demand for data centers is particularly significant. Operators of these facilities are more concerned about rapid online rollout and reliability, and are willing to pay high prices to ensure the supply of renewable energy. For example, one of Microsoft's recent deals was to support the restart of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant, and its PPA price far exceeded the general retail electricity price. Orenstein said such data center transactions show the influence of large buyers in the renewable energy market and even drive up prices in the entire market.

需求激增與併網瓶頸：供需矛盾下的緊張局面

雖然企業需求旺盛，但市場供應的限制導致項目開發延遲，尤其是面臨併網積壓問題。Ascend Analytics指出，許多可再生能源項目因併網積壓和供應鏈瓶頸而被推遲，這給那些面臨清潔能源目標的企業買家帶來了挑戰。延誤不僅導致供應不足，更推高了市場價格，特別是對那些急於在截止日期前完成採購目標的企業來說，這一現象十分明顯。

供應緊張和需求強勁的現狀也影響了公共事業公司，它們的價格競爭力相對較低。公共事業客戶表達了對市場競爭的擔憂，並質疑能否在企業競購的壓力下獲得穩定的PPA。LevelTen指出，部分公共事業公司已經開始重新考慮採購策略，更加注重投資效率，希望在資源有限的情況下優化能效。

Surge in demand and grid connection bottleneck: a tense situation under the contradiction between supply and demand

Although corporate demand is strong, market supply constraints have led to delays in project development, especially the grid connection backlog. Ascend Analytics noted that many renewable energy projects have been delayed due to grid connection backlogs and supply chain bottlenecks, creating challenges for corporate buyers facing clean energy goals. Delays not only lead to insufficient supply, but also push up market prices, especially for companies that are eager to meet procurement targets before deadlines. This phenomenon is very obvious.

The current situation of tight supply and strong demand also affects utility companies, which are relatively less price competitive. Utility customers have expressed concerns about competition in the market and questioned whether they can secure stable PPAs amid pressure from corporate bids. LevelTen pointed out that some public utility companies have begun to rethink their procurement strategies and pay more attention to investment efficiency, hoping to optimize energy efficiency under limited resources.

未來展望：企業與公共事業的可再生能源策略演變

Looking Ahead: Evolving Renewable Energy Strategies for Businesses and Utilities

Ascend Analytics的分析師對電力需求增長的長期預測持謹慎態度，他們認為，隨著價格上升，數據中心增長和電氣化進程將逐漸放緩，需求增長的速度會受到價格抑制。隨著需求和價格雙重壓力的加劇，市場對政策支持和技術創新有更高的期待，尤其是在提高供應鏈的穩定性、加快併網進程等方面，市場參與者希望能夠實現供需平衡。

Analysts at Ascend Analytics are cautious about long-term forecasts for electricity demand growth. They believe that as prices rise, data center growth and electrification will gradually slow down, and the speed of demand growth will be restrained by prices. As the dual pressures of demand and price intensify, the market has higher expectations for policy support and technological innovation, especially in terms of improving the stability of the supply chain and accelerating the grid connection process. Market participants hope to achieve a balance between supply and demand.

未來數年，隨著美國和全球可再生能源政策的進一步細化，供應鏈和價格壓力或將逐步緩解，讓市場更加穩定。然而，分析師強調，企業和公共事業都必須適應當前市場的不確定性，並尋求在成本上行壓力下的新合作機會和創新方案。

In the next few years, as U.S. and global renewable energy policies are further refined, supply chain and price pressures may gradually ease, making the market more stable. However, analysts stressed that both companies and utilities must adapt to the current market uncertainty and seek new cooperation opportunities and innovative solutions under upward cost pressure.