氣候衝擊不再遠在天邊：綠色金融迎來即時壓力測試時代

當全球金融市場仍忙於因應通膨壓力與地緣政治衝擊，綠色金融體系網絡（Network for Greening the Financial System, NGFS）於 2025 年 5 月發布的一套全新工具，為金融監管與投資決策帶來另一個重大轉折：首度以2030年前的時間框架，量化評估氣候衝擊的即時經濟風險。

From Climate Scenarios to Financial Reality: NGFS Launches Short-Term Risk Modeling Tool for 2030

As global financial markets remain preoccupied with inflationary pressures and geopolitical disruptions, the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) has introduced a new tool in May 2025 that marks a major turning point in climate-related financial oversight and investment strategy: for the first time, quantified assessments of near-term economic risks from climate change within a 2030 timeframe.

這套名為「短期氣候情境模擬工具」（Short-Term Climate Scenarios）的模型資料庫，由 NGFS 與 CLIMAFIN、E3-Modelling / RICARDO 以及國際應用系統分析研究所（IIASA）等多個氣候經濟模型專家聯手開發，涵蓋四種典型的氣候衝擊情境，包括：

This Short-Term Climate Scenarios tool and model database was developed by NGFS in collaboration with climate-economic modeling experts including CLIMAFIN, E3-Modelling / RICARDO, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). It includes four representative types of climate impact scenarios:

NGFS 主席暨德國聯邦銀行副總裁薩賓・馬德勒（Sabine Mauderer）指出，這一工具的最大價值在於，它填補了當前氣候風險評估在短期預測與產業應用上的空白。她強調：「極端氣候事件與政策轉變不再只是長期風險，它們正在快速轉變為財務與金融系統的即時挑戰。」

NGFS Chair and Vice President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Sabine Mauderer, emphasized the significance of this tool in closing the gap in short-term climate risk forecasting and sector-specific applicability:

“Extreme weather events and policy transitions are no longer just long-term risks. They are rapidly becoming immediate challenges for the financial system.”

金融機構如何使用這套新工具？

這套模型的特點之一，是提供了詳細的產業分類（如鋼鐵、水泥、航空、農業等）與金融衡量指標，方便銀行、保險公司、資產管理人與央行等單位進行氣候壓力測試（climate stress test），並作為：

歐洲央行（ECB）金融穩定副總司長暨 NGFS 情境設計分析小組主席李維歐・斯特拉卡（Livio Stracca）補充表示：「以往的氣候情境多集中於 2050 年甚至 2100 年，但金融市場的風險計價、利率與資產配置邏輯，講求的是3 到 5 年的中短期視野。這正是我們設計這套工具的初心。」

為何短期氣候風險正在成為新「黑天鵝」？

根據 NGFS 的技術報告，若氣候政策持續落後或極端氣候加劇，2030 年以前可能出現以下財務風險：

How Can Financial Institutions Use This Tool?

A key feature of this model suite is its detailed industry-level breakdowns (e.g., steel, cement, aviation, agriculture) and quantitative financial metrics, allowing central banks, commercial banks, insurers, and asset managers to perform:

Livio Stracca, Deputy Director General for Financial Stability at the European Central Bank and Chair of the NGFS Scenario Design and Analysis Group, added:

“Most past climate models focused on 2050 or even 2100. But financial markets operate on 3–5 year cycles in pricing, rates, and asset allocation. That’s why we built this tool - for short-term relevance.”

Why Short-Term Climate Risk is the New “Black Swan”

According to NGFS technical documentation, delayed climate action or intensified extreme events could lead to the following risks before 2030:

特別是在亞洲新興市場，當極端氣候與能源政策轉向碰撞時，將帶來供應鏈重組與勞動市場衝擊，直接影響跨國資產的信用評估。

亞洲金融機構的挑戰與契機：從 ESG 披露邁向氣候內生風險管理

對亞洲的銀行與保險公司而言，NGFS 的這套工具不只是風險評估平台，更是邁向「氣候整合型資產管理」的重要里程碑。過去多數 ESG 操作仍停留在揭露與排除層面，而今，透過這套模型：

此外，這一模型亦可與《IFRS S2 氣候揭露準則》中的財務影響定量要求對接，幫助企業與金融機構更具體揭露氣候變數下的業務風險敞口與財報敏感度。

For emerging Asian markets, the intersection of climate shocks and energy policy shifts could lead to supply chain disruptions and labor market impacts, directly affecting credit evaluations of cross-border assets.

Asia’s Financial Institutions: From ESG Disclosure to Embedded Climate Risk Management

For banks and insurers across Asia, the NGFS tool is not just a risk assessment platform - it marks a milestone in climate-integrated asset management. While ESG practices have often focused on disclosure and exclusions, this model enables a more proactive approach:

The tool is also compatible with the IFRS S2 Climate Disclosure Standard, supporting the quantification of financial materiality and climate-related exposure in corporate reports.

結語：從氣候場景走向金融現實的加速度

Conclusion: Accelerating the Shift from Scenarios to Financial Strategy

NGFS 所推出的短期氣候情境模型，不僅是一個技術工具，更是一項監理訊號：氣候風險將不再是未來式，而是正在發生的現在進行式。不論是投資機構還是銀行保險，若仍將氣候風險視為「ESG附錄項目」，將無法應對下一個氣候黑天鵝事件的來襲。

The NGFS’s new short-term scenario model is not merely a technical toolkit - it sends a clear supervisory signal: climate risk is no longer a future concern; it is a present financial reality. Institutions that continue treating it as an ESG side issue will be unprepared for the next climate-driven “black swan.”

當氣候變遷逐漸從科學共識走入經濟核心，「短期」已成為金融機構調整資產組合與監理框架的關鍵節點。在這場低碳轉型的賽局中，誰能快速整合短期氣候數據與財務風險管理能力，誰就有可能在未來綠色金融版圖中佔得先機。

As climate change moves from scientific consensus into economic core strategy, the keyword is now “short-term.” The institutions that swiftly integrate near-term climate data into portfolio and regulatory frameworks will gain a competitive edge in the next era of green finance.