羅地歐警告：美國清潔能源轉型需倍增努力以達2030年目標

羅地歐集團（Rhodium Group）近日發佈《清潔能源投資監測報告》，指出雖然美國清潔能源投資顯示出積極增長的跡象，但在實現巴黎協定承諾以及《通脹削減法案》（IRA）設定的減排目標方面仍有明顯差距。

Rhodium Group recently released the "Clean Energy Investment Monitoring Report", pointing out that although U.S. clean energy investment shows signs of positive growth, there is still a clear gap in achieving the Paris Agreement commitments and the emission reduction targets set by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

The report shows that the current clean energy transition process in the United States can only achieve the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30% from the 2005 baseline level by 2030, which is far from the 50% emission reduction target committed in the 2015 Paris Agreement. According to IRA forecasts, without additional measures, the United States should have been able to achieve a 40% emissions reduction level, but solar and wind energy projects fell short of expectations and missed the target.

報告顯示，美國目前的清潔能源轉型進程僅能實現到2030年將溫室氣體排放量從2005年基準水平減少30%的目標，這與其2015年巴黎協定中承諾的50%減排目標相去甚遠。根據IRA的預測，若無額外措施，美國本應能達到40%的減排水平，但太陽能和風能項目未達預期使目標落空。

New clean electricity production capacity will reach its peak, but it is far from enough to meet the challenge of emission reduction

清潔電力新增產能將迎高峰，但遠不足以應對減排挑戰

報告指出，2024年美國預計新增清潔電力產能將創歷史新高，2025年則成為第二高峰。然而，目前的項目儲備不足以支撐持續新增產能，無法滿足2030年前的去碳化要求。

彭博新能源財經（BloombergNEF）的另一份報告進一步警告，如果美國未能採取果斷措施，其能源轉型進程將導致全球溫度上升2.6攝氏度。該報告認為，若要在2050年實現淨零排放，美國需立即顯著減少電力行業排放，並將所有能源系統全面轉向無碳來源。

The report pointed out that the United States is expected to hit a record high in new clean power capacity in 2024, and reach the second peak in 2025. However, the current project reserve is insufficient to support continued new capacity additions and cannot meet decarbonization requirements before 2030.

Another report from BloombergNEF further warned that if the United States fails to take decisive measures, its energy transition process will cause global temperatures to rise by 2.6 degrees Celsius. The report believes that to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the United States needs to immediately and significantly reduce emissions from the power sector and fully transition all energy systems to carbon-free sources.

投資放緩引發擔憂 第三季度下降顯著

羅地歐的報告指出，2024年第三季度美國清潔能源與交通製造領域的新增投資達58億美元，較第二季度下降9%，同比下降62%。報告警告，此趨勢表明未來數季度的實際投資可能進一步放緩。

具體來看，零售投資在第三季度表現強勁，總額達350億美元，占季度清潔能源投資的一半，環比增長9%，同比增長11%。相比之下，能源和工業領域的投資為200億美元，環比下降7%，同比下降6%。製造業投資則保持穩定，達160億美元，與上一季度持平，但同比增長57%。

Slowing investment raises concerns, significant decline in third quarter

Rodeo's report pointed out that in the third quarter of 2024, new investment in clean energy and transportation manufacturing in the United States reached US$5.8 billion, a decrease of 9% from the second quarter and a year-on-year decrease of 62%. The report warns that this trend suggests that real investment may slow further in the coming quarters.

Specifically, retail investment performed strongly in the third quarter, totaling $35 billion, accounting for half of quarterly clean energy investment, up 9% quarter-on-quarter and 11% year-on-year. In contrast, investment in the energy and industrial sector was US$20 billion, down 7% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year. Manufacturing investment remained stable, reaching US$16 billion, the same as the previous quarter, but a year-on-year increase of 57%.

新增產能需倍增以實現減排目標

報告顯示，2023年至2025年間，美國每年平均新增清潔能源產能32至36吉瓦。然而，若要實現到2030年溫室氣體減排40%或以上的目標，美國需在2026年至2028年間將新增產能提升至目前的兩倍。

天然氣價格和許可挑戰成主要阻礙

報告分析指出，天然氣價格的快速下降提升了其相對於清潔能源技術的經濟吸引力，成為阻礙清潔能源擴展的因素之一。此外，風能和太陽能項目在選址和許可過程中的挑戰也進一步拖慢了發展速度。

New production capacity needs to be doubled to achieve emission reduction targets

The report shows that between 2023 and 2025, the United States will add an average of 32 to 36 gigawatts of new clean energy capacity every year. However, to achieve its goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40% or more by 2030, the United States will need to double its current capacity additions between 2026 and 2028.

Natural gas prices and permitting challenges pose major hurdles

The report analysis points out that the rapid decline in natural gas prices has increased its economic attractiveness relative to clean energy technologies and has become one of the factors hindering the expansion of clean energy. In addition, challenges in the siting and permitting processes for wind and solar projects have further slowed development.

羅地歐報告建議，政策干預是解決許可問題的有效途徑。聯邦層面、區域電力市場規範以及州和地方政府的協同努力，將幫助清潔電力項目加速部署，實現IRA設定的潛在目標。

The Rodeo report recommended that policy intervention be an effective way to solve the licensing problem. Coordinated efforts at the federal level, regional electricity market regulations, and state and local governments will help accelerate the deployment of clean power projects and achieve the potential goals set by the IRA.

呼籲採取果斷行動應對挑戰

Call for decisive action to address challenges

儘管面臨諸多挑戰，羅地歐的分析強調，決策者應迅速採取行動，推動清潔能源項目發展，確保美國在全球氣候行動中發揮領導作用，並加速實現減排和能源轉型目標。

Despite the challenges ahead, Rodeo's analysis emphasizes that policymakers should act quickly to advance clean energy projects, ensure the United States plays a leadership role in global climate action, and accelerate emissions reduction and energy transition goals.