全球化石二氧化碳排放估降 0.4%，含土地利用的總量仍升

全球碳計畫 11 月 10 日發布 2026 年全球碳預算初估。研究團隊預計，化石燃料與水泥相關二氧化碳排放約 382 億公噸，較上年減少 0.4%；納入土地利用變化後，全球總量反而從約 428 億公噸升至 433 億公噸。這是年度預估，全年清冊尚未完成。

The Global Carbon Project released its preliminary 2026 carbon budget on 10 November. It projects about 38.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and cement, down 0.4% from the previous year. After adding land-use change, it estimates total emissions at 43.3 billion tonnes, up from 42.8 billion. The full year has yet to be measured.

全球碳預算由跨國研究團隊編製，分列化石與土地利用排放，並評估陸地、海洋吸收及大氣中的碳累積。埃克塞特大學同日公開研究摘要；Reuters 報導同一份預估，並引述研究成員說明，單年下降不足以確認結構性轉折。

An international research team produces the budget. Its estimates distinguish fossil and land-use emissions, assess uptake by land and ocean, and track carbon accumulation in the atmosphere. The University of Exeter released the findings, and Reuters reported the projections and the researchers’ warning against reading a long-term turning point into one year.

油氣供應受到伊朗戰事衝擊、價格上升，可能壓低部分燃料需求；風光電與電動車的成長也抵銷部分新增能源需求。兩種因素的持續性不同。若把暫時性的油品需求收縮與長期設備替換合併計算，容易高估未來可持續的降幅。

Higher prices and disruptions linked to the Iran conflict may have reduced demand for some fuels. More solar and wind power and a growing electric vehicle fleet also offset part of the increase in energy demand. These drivers operate on different timescales. A temporary contraction in oil use is a poor substitute for evidence that equipment and energy supply have changed durably.

解讀這次估計可先拆成燃料別，再分開看土地利用。研究預計石油排放降 1.9%、天然氣降 0.3%，煤炭則增 0.6%。對總量變動，還要另看森林退化、泥炭火災等土地來源。這些分類回答不同問題，不宜用單一總百分比取代。

The researchers project a 1.9% drop in oil emissions and a 0.3% drop in gas emissions, with coal emissions up 0.6%. That breakdown helps explain why the headline fossil figure is only slightly lower. Land-use changes, including forest degradation and peat fires, require a separate assessment before drawing a conclusion about the total.

研究機構估計 2026 年土地利用變化排放約 51 億公噸，東南亞部分森林退化與泥炭火災是增量來源。化石排放的年度變動仍有不確定性，公開研究所列範圍包含小幅上升。美聯社的原創採訪亦交叉核對了能源衝擊與長期減排之間的區別。

The team estimates around 5.1 billion tonnes from land-use change, with forest degradation and peat fires in parts of Southeast Asia among the contributors. The uncertainty range around the annual fossil change includes a small increase. Separate reporting by the Associated Press also distinguishes the effect of the energy shock from evidence of lasting decarbonisation.

對高耗能製造與資本支出決策，全球初估提供的是情境訊號，不是企業盤查係數。原油供給緊縮可能先影響燃料成本；供電結構與設備更新才決定特定廠區能否持續降低排放。公司也不能用全球化石燃料降幅，代替本身的直接用能、購電或供應鏈數據。

For industrial energy buyers and project financiers, the global estimate is a scenario input. Fuel scarcity can change costs before it changes assets or the power mix. A site’s emissions still depend on its own fuel use, electricity purchases and production. A global percentage cannot be applied directly to its inventory.

SNN 編輯分析｜揭露前證據基礎設施。國際油氣供應擾動會經燃料採購價格與客戶的減碳詢問傳導到台灣石化與出口製造；風光電增加是否降低廠區排放，仍取決於用電時段與實際供電。台灣石化廠能源採購團隊應在季度預算更新前，以燃料交貨單、價格條款與燃燒計量紀錄分開重算供應衝擊與用量變動。出口製造廠廠務主管應在每月關帳時，對照分時電表紀錄、購電契約與電網排放係數，保留設備節能和外購電力變化各自的底稿。專案授信銀行應在放款審查前比對能源改造設備驗收報告與經核對的產量基準，避免把暫時停產算成永久減排。這些是查核建議，不表示台灣排放已隨全球估計下降。

SNN editorial analysis: The Pre-Disclosure Evidence Infrastructure for this risk separates a fuel-price shock from a lasting change at a plant. For Taiwan petrochemical producers and export manufacturers, the external shock can reach budgets through fuel procurement and customer requests for carbon data. Petrochemical energy procurement teams should reconcile delivery receipts, fuel price clauses and combustion meter records before quarterly rebudgeting to isolate the volume effect. Export plant engineering teams should match interval meter readings, power contracts and grid emissions factors at month-end to separate equipment savings from purchased electricity changes. Project lenders should review retrofit commissioning reports against a verified production baseline before approving drawdown, so an idle plant is not credited with permanent savings. This analysis does not establish that emissions in Taiwan followed the global estimate.

接下來可觀察年度燃料統計修訂後，0.4% 的降幅是否仍成立，以及油氣供應正常化後是否反彈。若化石排放連續下降、煤炭走勢反轉，且土地利用排放的上升也能扭轉，才有較強的證據支持全球排放路徑改變。

The next test is whether the decline survives revisions to the annual fuel data and any normalisation of oil and gas supply. Repeated fossil declines, a reversal in coal emissions and lower land-use emissions would provide stronger evidence of a change in the global trajectory.