美國清潔能源的黃金轉折，正在變成政策懸崖

在全球氣候行動逐漸邁向制度化的此刻，美國卻再次站上清潔能源政策的十字路口。儘管美國《降低通膨法案》（IRA）與《兩黨基礎建設法案》曾被視為激勵新能源投資的里程碑，但隨著國會共和黨於預算和解程序中力圖削減相關支出，加上川普重返白宮後第一天即凍結 IRA 與基建法案撥款的行政命令，這些曾象徵「綠色轉型」的政策支柱，如今都搖搖欲墜。

As Global Climate Action Becomes Institutionalized, the U.S. Once Again Stands at a Clean Energy Crossroads

At a time when climate action is increasingly becoming institutionalized around the world, the United States finds itself once again at a critical policy crossroads. Although landmark legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law were once hailed as transformative catalysts for renewable energy investment, recent political shifts have cast serious doubts on their future.

在近期於華府舉行的首屆「氣候週」活動中，與會的氣候與能源政策專家，表達出前所未有的焦慮。他們指出，稅收抵免制度的不穩定與關稅政策的反覆，不僅削弱了企業投資意願，更阻礙美國在全球清潔能源市場中重新取得領先地位的可能。

Republican lawmakers in Congress are pushing to slash funding through the budget reconciliation process, while Donald Trump, on his first day back in the White House, issued an executive order freezing IRA and infrastructure-related disbursements. These once-praised pillars of America's "green transition" are now on increasingly shaky ground.

民主黨眾議員唐・拜爾（Don Beyer）在論壇上直言不諱：「當企業不知道該投資什麼，面對關稅與政策變化時一頭霧水，就根本無法前進。」作為眾議院稅務與財政委員會成員，拜爾明言，維持《晶片與科學法案》及氣候法案中的「政策確定性」，將是他與黨內同仁當前最核心的任務。

At the recent inaugural Climate Week in Washington, D.C., energy and climate policy experts expressed unprecedented concern. They pointed out that unstable tax credit frameworks and erratic trade policies are not only undermining investor confidence but also jeopardizing the U.S.’s chances of reclaiming leadership in the global clean energy market.

“When businesses don’t know what to invest in - when they’re confused by tariffs and policy swings - they simply can’t move forward,” said Representative Don Beyer, a Democrat serving on the House Ways and Means Committee.

事實上，這場政治攻防對產業現場產生了立即且具體的影響。來自先進能源智庫 Advanced Energy United 的資深顧問喬伊・帕奧里諾（Joey Paolino）指出，若企業無法預判未來三到五年的稅務與政策環境，就難以說服財務長進行長期佈局。「你不能拿著一份不穩定的政策框架，去談資本支出，」他說。

Beyer made it clear that maintaining policy certainty - especially regarding the CHIPS and Science Act and climate legislation - will be a top priority for him and his Democratic colleagues.

From Capitol Hill to the Factory Floor: Real-World Fallout

The political infighting has already had concrete repercussions for the industry. According to Joey Paolino, Senior Advisor at the think tank Advanced Energy United, if companies can’t anticipate the regulatory and tax environment over the next three to five years, it's virtually impossible to get CFOs to greenlight long-term capital investments.

“You can’t walk into a boardroom and pitch capex based on a volatile policy framework,” Paolino said.

What’s more concerning is that many of the IRA and infrastructure investment incentives are set to expire by the end of this year. Lindsey Baxter Griffith, Executive Director of the nonprofit Clean Tomorrow, described this looming reality as an “innovation funding cliff” - a moment when federal clean energy momentum could collapse under the weight of political shifts, leaving commercial-ready technologies without vital resources.

更令人憂心的是，許多來自 IRA 與基建法案的投資激勵措施，將在今年底陸續到期。非營利組織 Clean Tomorrow 的執行長林賽・巴克斯特・葛里菲斯（Lindsey Baxter Griffith）稱之為「創新資金懸崖」（innovation funding cliff）——聯邦創新能量將可能因政治轉向而斷裂，讓原已進入商業化階段的清潔科技面臨資源斷炊。

Missing the Green Dividend - Again

This wouldn’t be the first time the U.S. failed to capitalize on its early lead in climate innovation. Dan Delurey, former White House Clean Energy Director and now a fellow at Vermont Law School, noted that although solar technology was pioneered in the U.S., nearly all manufacturing now occurs in China.

He criticized the nation’s chronic lack of long-term strategic vision when it comes to translating climate solutions into domestic jobs and industrial policy.

值得注意的是，這並非美國首次錯失氣候政策紅利。前白宮清潔能源主任、現任佛蒙特法學院研究員丹・德路瑞（Dan Delurey）就指出，儘管光電技術發源於美國，如今卻幾乎全由中國製造。他批評，美國至今仍缺乏前瞻性地將「氣候解方轉化為企業與就業機會」的政策策略。「我們對於長期趨勢與確定性的理解嚴重不足，這就是問題所在。」

“We have a fundamental failure to understand long-term trends and the importance of certainty. That’s the core issue,” Delurey said.

The World Moves Forward - Will America Be Left Behind?

當歐盟邁向碳邊境調整機制（CBAM）、中國強化再生能源供應鏈掌控、印度推進氫能經濟，美國若無法確保自身氣候政策的可預期性，恐怕不只是企業投資會止步，連全球綠色供應鏈都將另尋重心。

While the EU advances its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), China deepens its grip on the renewable energy supply chain, and India accelerates hydrogen economy initiatives, the U.S.’s failure to provide policy predictability may not just stall private investment - it could reorient the global green supply chain away from the U.S. altogether.

2025 年原本是美國能源轉型的「黃金之年」，如今卻極可能成為「懸崖之年」。當政策從資產變成風險，這不只是清潔能源產業的挑戰，更是整個美國經濟競爭力的危機。

The year 2025 was once seen as a golden year for America’s energy transition. Now, it risks becoming the year of the great policy cliff. When public policy shifts from being an asset to a liability, the consequences stretch far beyond clean energy - they touch the very foundation of U.S. economic competitiveness.