OPEC與IEA預測分歧：石油需求2050年將達1.201億桶，遠未見頂

石油輸出國家組織（OPEC）今天發布的報告表示，逐步淘汰石油的想法是「天方夜譚」，並預測石油需求將持續增長，至少到2050年。

A report released today by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said the idea of phasing out oil was a "fantasy" and predicted that oil demand will continue to grow until at least

這一預測與國際能源總署（IEA）的評估形成強烈對比，後者認為隨著世界轉向再生能源和電動車，化石燃料的需求將在本世紀20年代達到頂峰。

2050. The forecast contrasts sharply with the International Energy Agency's (IEA) assessment that demand for fossil fuels will peak in the 2020s as the world shifts to renewable energy and electric vehicles.

OPEC秘書長海塔姆·蓋斯（Haitham Al Ghais）強調，石油和天然氣在當前的能源組合中占據一半以上的份額，這種狀況將延續到2050年。OPEC的最新報告指出，到2050年，全球石油需求預計將增至每日1.201億桶，相比2023年每日1.022億桶增加17.5%。

OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais stressed that oil and gas account for more than half of the current energy mix and this situation will continue until 2050. OPEC's latest report states that global oil demand is expected to increase to 120.1 million barrels per day by 2050, an increase of 17.5% from 102.2 million barrels per day in 2023.

與此同時，OPEC也上調了2045年的產量預測至每天1.189億桶，比去年預測的每天1.16億桶有所增加。這表明OPEC對於石油需求高峰尚無明確的時間預測，甚至認為石油需求高峰「遙遙無期」。

At the same time, OPEC also raised its production forecast for 2045 to 118.9 million barrels per day, an increase from last year's forecast of 116 million barrels per day. This shows that OPEC has no clear time forecast for the peak of oil demand, and even believes that the peak of oil demand is "unexpected."

這一預測與全球應對氣候變遷的努力顯得格格不入。

This prediction is incompatible with global efforts to combat climate change. At the COP28 United Nations climate summit hosted by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), an OPEC member state, last year, countries unanimously adopted an

去年在OPEC成員國阿拉伯聯合大公國（UAE）主辦的COP28聯合國氣候峰會上，各國一致通過了「逐步擺脫化石燃料」的協議，目標是在2050年實現全球淨零排放。

agreement to "gradually transition away from fossil fuels" with the goal of achieving global net-zero emissions by 2050. At the same time, the agreement also proposes to double global renewable energy production capacity by 2030.

同時，這份協議還提出，到2030年將全球再生能源產能翻倍。

However, the OPEC report emphasizes that while energy policies are ambitious, overly aggressive policy goals may face increased scrutiny and resistance from policymakers and the public.

然而，OPEC的報告強調，雖然能源政策雄心勃勃，但過度激進的政策目標可能會面臨更多來自決策者和公眾的審查和抵制。該組織還指出，能源安全仍然是全球最重要的議題，這意味著各國在能源政策上的選擇將更加謹慎。

The organization also pointed out that energy security remains the most important issue in the world, which means that countries will be more cautious in their energy policy choices.