台灣未來十年電力需求暴增，台電壓力空前加劇

根據台電的預估，在半導體和人工智慧（AI）產業用電需求大增的影響下，從今年到2033年，台灣的用電量年均成長率將達到2.8%，每年平均增加90億度電。預計到了2033年，全年用電量將比今年增長28%。如果從夜間尖峰負載來看，年均成長率同樣是2.8%，這是過去10年年均成長0.9%的三倍。

According to Taipower's estimates, under the influence of the surge in electricity demand from the semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) industries, Taiwan's electricity consumption will grow at an average annual growth rate of 2.8% from this year to 2033, with an average annual increase of 9 billion kilowatt hours of electricity. It is expected that by 2033, annual electricity consumption will increase by 28% compared with this year. If we look at the nighttime peak load, the average annual growth rate is also 2.8%, which is three times the average annual growth rate of 0.9% in the past 10 years.

台電董事長曾文生表示，「AI用電會成長，但實際增加最多的還是半導體。」台電追蹤了半導體業在科學園區的設廠情況和用電需求，再加上AI業者的用電計畫和伺服器銷售預估，五年內，這兩個產業將新增407萬瓩的用電需求，占全國用電負載成長的80%。

Taipower Chairman Tsang Wensheng said, "AI power consumption will grow, but the actual increase is in semiconductors." Taipower has tracked the semiconductor industry's factory setting up in science parks and power demand, coupled with the AI industry's power consumption plan and server sales estimates, within five years, these two industries will have an additional power demand of 4.07 million kilowatts, accounting for 80% of the national power load growth.

然而，這些產業的用電需求是否合理？台灣大學大氣系退休教授、媽媽氣候行動聯盟常務理事徐光蓉強調，台灣是否應該無止境地發展這麼多高耗電產業？這些產業是否有採取更節能的技術？他認為，台灣應該仔細評估自己的供電能力，而不是盲目地歡迎全球廠商設廠。

However, are the electricity demands of these industries reasonable? Xu Guangrong, a retired professor at the Department of Atmosphere, National Taiwan University and executive director of the Mom Climate Action Alliance, stressed that should Taiwan endlessly develop so many high-power-consuming industries? Have these industries adopted more energy-saving technologies? He believes that Taiwan should carefully evaluate its own power supply capabilities instead of blindly welcoming global manufacturers to set up factories.

至於供電穩定性，台電的數據顯示，今年1月到7月底，共有213天，其中只有9天的備轉容量率低於10%，顯示供電吃緊，其他日子則顯示供電穩定。然而，中央大學管理講座教授梁啟源根據相同的台電資料計算發現，在相同期間內，黃燈警示天數達到49天，甚至有4天備轉容量率低於6%，進入「供電警戒」狀態。

梁啟源進一步分析，若考慮接收站時程延宕和供氣可能受影響的機組，以及將尚未簽約但已排入上線時程的民間電廠延後一年，政府版本的夜間淨尖峰能力將大幅降低，最壞情況下，明年備用容量率可能只剩下4.5%，進入缺電區間。

As for power supply stability, Taipower's data shows that from January to the end of July this year, there were 213 days, of which only 9 days had a backup capacity rate lower than 10%, indicating tight power supply, while other days showed stable power supply. However, Liang Qiyuan, professor of management at National Central University, calculated based on the same Taipower data and found that during the same period, the number of yellow light warning days reached 49 days, and there were even 4 days when the backup capacity rate was lower than 6%, entering the "power supply alert" state.

Liang Qiyuan further analyzed that if the schedule delay of the receiving station and the units that may be affected by gas supply are taken into account, as well as the delay of one year for private power plants that have not yet been contracted but have been scheduled to come online, the government version of the nighttime net peak capacity will be significantly reduced. In the worst case, the reserve capacity rate may only be 4.5% next year, entering the power shortage range.

曾文生也坦言，2024年至2027年將是供電壓力最大的幾年，備用容量率約為8％，遠低於安全水位15％，若遇到機組故障，供電壓力將進一步加劇。

Zeng Wensheng also admitted that the years from 2024 to 2027 will be the years with the greatest power supply pressure. The reserve capacity rate is about 8%, which is far lower than the safe water level of 15%. If a unit fails, the power supply pressure will be further intensified.

此外，再生能源建置進度嚴重落後，燃氣接收站環評延宕、機組設置不順，原定補位時程一再推遲。經濟部指出，明年再生能源目標達不到20%，主要是因為用電量激增導致綠電占比下降。但即使不看比例，單純看建置量的絕對數字，進度同樣不如預期。

In addition, the progress of renewable energy construction is seriously lagging behind, the environmental assessment of the gas receiving station is delayed, the unit installation is not smooth, and the original replenishment schedule has been repeatedly postponed. The Ministry of Economic Affairs pointed out that the renewable energy target for next year will not reach 20%, mainly because of the surge in electricity consumption, which has led to a decrease in the proportion of green electricity. But even if you don't look at the proportion and just look at the absolute number of construction, the progress is still not as good as expected.

在這種情況下，核電如期停機，但再生能源無法銜接，這讓台灣在減碳目標上面臨困難。童子賢強調，任何不排碳的發電方式都非常珍貴，台灣要達到2050年脫碳目標，可能需要依靠核二、核三延役，這也是他主張核能與綠能共存的原因。

In this case, nuclear power was shut down as scheduled, but renewable energy could not be connected, which made Taiwan face difficulties in meeting its carbon reduction goals. Tong Zixian emphasized that any non-carbon-emitting power generation method is very precious. If Taiwan wants to achieve its 2050 decarbonization goal, it may need to rely on nuclear II and nuclear III extensions. This is why he advocates the coexistence of nuclear energy and green energy.

如同賴清德所說，能源議題不只是簡單的「反核」或「擁核」之間的選擇題，而是國家氣候治理中的複雜多選題。台灣未來的產業結構將決定電力需求，而如何選擇電力來源，則關乎我們願意承擔的成本和代價。這是每一位台灣人都需要思考和取捨的問題。

As Lai Qingde said, the energy issue is not just a simple multiple-choice question between "anti-nuclear" or "pro-nuclear", but a complex multiple-choice question in national climate governance. Taiwan's future industrial structure will determine electricity demand, and how to choose the source of electricity is related to the costs and prices we are willing to bear. This is a question that every Taiwanese needs to think about and make choices.