應對熱通膨：全球暖化挑戰糧食安全，台灣積極強化氣候韌性

全球暖化的加劇正對農業生產和食物價格帶來嚴重影響，台灣今年的龍眼和荔枝因高溫減少開花，價格飛漲，顯示氣候變遷與食物價格間的密切關聯。科學家警告，隨著全球變暖趨勢持續，未來糧食價格上漲的壓力將愈加嚴峻，這種現象被稱為「熱通膨」（Heatflation）。

The intensification of global warming is having a serious impact on agricultural production and food prices. Taiwan's longans and lychees have reduced flowering due to high temperatures this year, and their prices have skyrocketed, showing the close connection between climate change and food prices. Scientists warn that as global warming continues, the pressure on rising food prices will become more severe in the future, a phenomenon known as "heatflation."

熱通膨的定義與影響

The definition and impact of hot inflation

「熱通膨」概念自2022年開始廣泛討論，指的是極端高溫導致的物價上漲。研究顯示，全球變暖會使主要農作物歉收，增加食品價格的上漲幅度。歐洲央行和德國波茨坦氣候變遷研究所的研究預測，未來十年內，熱通膨可能使食品價格每年上漲0.9%至3%。

The concept of "hot inflation" has been widely discussed since 2022, referring to the rise in prices caused by extreme high temperatures. Research shows that global warming will cause crop failure in major crops and increase food price increases. Research from the European Central Bank and Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Change predicts that hot inflation could increase food prices by 0.9% to 3% annually over the next decade.

全球案例：乾旱、熱浪與價格飆升

全球各地的乾旱與高溫持續對糧食供應造成打擊。例如，義大利的牛奶產量因高溫減少，美國密西西比河流域的乾旱則影響玉米和大豆的生產和運輸，進一步推高農牧產品價格。經濟學家指出，這些氣候變遷引發的成本將最終轉嫁給消費者，即使乾旱結束，影響仍將持續。

Global stories: Droughts, heat waves and soaring prices

Drought and high temperatures around the world continue to take a toll on food supplies. For example, milk production in Italy has been reduced due to high temperatures, and drought in the Mississippi River Basin in the United States has affected the production and transportation of corn and soybeans, further pushing up the prices of agricultural and animal husbandry products. Economists point out that these costs caused by climate change will eventually be passed on to consumers, and the impact will continue even after the drought ends.

台灣的挑戰與應對策略

台灣面臨的氣候挑戰也越發嚴峻，預計到2050年，水稻和玉米的產量將顯著下降，推動糧食價格上升。

Taiwan’s challenges and coping strategies

Taiwan is also facing increasingly severe climate challenges. It is expected that by 2050,

rice and corn production will decline significantly,

driving up food prices. To combat this phenomenon,

Taiwan must invest in agricultural infrastructure to enhance climate resilience,

為應對這一現象，台灣必須投資農業基礎設施以增強氣候韌性，推動糧食生產多樣化，減少對單一作物的依賴。

promote diversification of food production,

and reduce reliance on single crops. At the same time,

measures such as reducing food waste and promoting food security policies,

同時，減少食物浪費、推行糧食安全政策，如食物銀行和農民補貼等措施，也將是有效的應對策略。

such as food banks and farmer subsidies,

will also be effective response strategies. The most fundamental solution still lies in reducing carbon emissions and curbing the intensification of global warming,

最根本的解決辦法仍在於減少碳排放，遏制全球暖化的加劇，才能從根本上遏制熱通膨的影響。

so as to fundamentally curb the impact of thermal inflation.