木材風險逼近

在世界經濟論壇（WEF）期間發布的一份最新研究簡報警告，全球高度依賴木材的供應鏈正面臨日益加劇的商業與生態風險。該報告由環保非營利組織 Canopy 與 Finance Earth 共同撰寫指出，在需求攀升、氣候衝擊加劇與監管壓力同步上升的背景下，延續「如常運作」（business-as-usual）的原生木材採購模式，將在未來十年為品牌與投資人帶來更高成本、供應不穩定性，以及日益擴大的聲譽與法律風險。

A new research brief released during the World Economic Forum (WEF) warns that global supply chains that are highly dependent on wood are facing increasing commercial and ecological risks. The report, co-authored by environmental non-profit organizations Canopy and Finance Earth, points out that in the context of rising demand, intensifying climate impacts and rising regulatory pressures, continuing the "business-as-usual" virgin wood procurement model will bring higher costs, supply instability, and increasing reputational and legal risks to brands and investors in the next decade.

該分析發布之際，Canopy 正與超過 1,000 家消費品牌合作，這些品牌合計年營收超過 1.2 兆美元，涵蓋包裝、紡織等高度仰賴木材纖維的產業。Canopy 的目標是降低毀林風險，並加速推動循環材料與低衝擊替代方案的採用。

The analysis comes as Canopy works with more than 1,000 consumer brands that collectively generate more than $1.2 trillion in annual revenue, spanning packaging, textiles and other industries that rely heavily on wood fiber. Canopy aims to reduce the risk of deforestation and accelerate the adoption of circular materials and low-impact alternatives.

Wood fiber market tightening

The 2026 annual research brief titled "Paper Thin Comfort" points out that rapidly increasing demand for wood fiber in energy, biofuels, construction, packaging and man-made fibers (such as viscose) is intersecting with climate-driven supply shocks and an increasingly stringent regulatory environment, forming a structurally tight virgin wood market.

木材纖維市場趨於緊縮

名為《Paper Thin Comfort》的 2026 年度研究簡報指出，能源、生質燃料、建築、包裝與人造纖維（如黏膠纖維）對木材纖維的需求快速增加，正與氣候驅動的供應衝擊及日益嚴格的法規環境交織，形成結構性緊縮的原生木材市場。

報告分析顯示，生質能源需求上升、工程木材使用擴大，以及野火與極端氣候事件造成的森林損失，正同步削弱全球商業林業系統的穩定性。中期而言，具備認證與可追溯性的原生木材將更為稀缺，對造紙、包裝與時尚產業的成本、法遵與成長前景產生實質影響。

The report's analysis shows that rising demand for biomass energy, the expansion of the use of engineered wood, and forest loss due to wildfires and extreme weather events are simultaneously weakening the stability of commercial forestry systems around the world. In the medium term, certified and traceable virgin wood will become even more scarce, having a material impact on the costs, compliance and growth prospects of the paper, packaging and fashion industries.

The study specifically points out that companies that are highly dependent on paper-based packaging and wood-based textiles will be the first to bear the brunt of raw material price fluctuations and supply risks. At present, virgin wood pulp accounts for about one-fifth of global wood usage. Packaging demand driven by e-commerce and clothing brands based on viscose fiber are regarded as the most exposed groups.

研究特別指出，對紙基包裝與木源紡織品高度依賴的企業，將首當其衝承受原料價格波動與供應風險。目前原生木漿約占全球木材使用量的五分之一，電子商務帶動的包裝需求，以及以黏膠纖維為主的服裝品牌，被視為最具曝險程度的族群。

Canopy 創辦人暨執行長 Nicole Rycroft 表示，森林是應對氣候變遷與自然危機的重要盟友，但現行採購模式正將其推向臨界點。她警告，若企業與投資人持續依賴傳統木材來源，將不可避免面臨更高成本、更脆弱的供應鏈，以及日益升高的監管與聲譽風險，而市場其實已存在來自「下一代纖維」（Next Gen fibres）與替代材料的明確轉型出口。

法遵成本上升與投資人審視加劇

報告進一步指出，歐盟、加拿大、英國等司法管轄區正快速擴大供應鏈盡職調查要求，以杜絕毀林、森林退化及強迫或童工問題。預計於 2026 年底正式生效的《歐盟零毀林法規》（EUDR），將顯著改變木材與林產品的市場進入門檻，限制不合規產品流通，並加劇對可驗證、可追溯原料的競爭。

Canopy founder and CEO Nicole Rycroft said forests are important allies in the fight against climate change and nature crises, but current procurement models are pushing them to a breaking point. She warned that if companies and investors continue to rely on traditional wood sources, they will inevitably face higher costs, a more fragile supply chain, and increasing regulatory and reputational risks. In fact, the market already has a clear transformation export from "Next Gen fibers" and alternative materials.

Rising legal compliance costs and intensified investor scrutiny

The report further states that jurisdictions such as the European Union, Canada, and the United Kingdom are rapidly expanding supply chain due diligence requirements to eliminate deforestation, forest degradation, and forced or child labor. The EU Zero Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which is expected to officially come into effect at the end of 2026, will significantly change the market entry threshold for wood and forest products, restrict the circulation of non-compliant products, and intensify competition for verifiable and traceable raw materials.

同時，投資人對「零毀林投資組合」的期待日益明確，資本市場正重新評估高環境與供應鏈風險企業的資金配置。報告指出，森林相關風險正逐步與氣候揭露制度、資金成本與企業估值產生交集，成為實質財務議題。

品牌的策略應對路徑

為降低曝險並提升長期韌性，報告提出三項關鍵策略方向：

第一，降低對原生木材的依賴，擴大使用回收纖維與來自農業剩餘物、廢紡織品或再生材料的下一代纖維。 第二，針對仍需使用的木材來源，透過可信認證、全程可追溯性，以及對原住民與在地社群影響的風險篩查來降低不確定性。 第三，將木材相關風險納入壓力測試、採購策略與資本配置決策，以因應未來潛在衝擊。

At the same time, investors’ expectations for “zero deforestation investment portfolios” have become increasingly clear, and the capital market is reassessing the capital allocation of companies with high environmental and supply chain risks. The report points out that forest-related risks are gradually intersecting with climate disclosure systems, capital costs and corporate valuations, becoming substantial financial issues.

Brand’s strategic response path

To reduce exposure and improve long-term resilience, the report proposes three key strategic directions:

First, reduce reliance on virgin wood and expand the use of recycled fibers and next-generation fibers from agricultural residues, waste textiles or recycled materials. Second, for the sources of wood that still need to be used, uncertainty can be reduced through credible certification, full traceability, and risk screening of impacts on indigenous peoples and local communities. Third, incorporate timber-related risks into stress testing, procurement strategies and capital allocation decisions to prepare for potential future shocks.

Finance Earth 董事總經理 Elizabeth Beall 表示，越來越多企業已開始正視木材纖維風險對財務表現的影響，一旦風險被量化，投資於低風險供應與韌性建構的商業合理性便清晰可見。

Elizabeth Beall, managing director of Finance Earth, said that more and more companies are beginning to face the impact of wood fiber risks on financial performance. Once the risks are quantified, the commercial rationale for investing in low-risk supply and resilient construction becomes clear.

Implications for senior executives and investors

對高階主管與投資人的意涵

該簡報強調，木材纖維風險已不再只是環境議題，而是攸關成本、法遵與資本配置的核心商業風險。循環材料與低衝擊纖維，正逐步成為對沖監管衝擊、原料波動與投資人期望轉變的重要工具。

The briefing emphasizes that wood fiber risks are no longer just an environmental issue, but a core business risk related to costs, legal compliance and capital allocation. Recycled materials and low-impact fibers are gradually becoming important tools to hedge against regulatory shocks, raw material fluctuations, and changes in investor expectations.

在氣候與自然限制持續重塑大宗商品市場的背景下，木材已加入關鍵原物料的高風險清單。報告總結指出，韌性、可追溯性與循環採購，正快速從自願承諾轉變為全球林業依賴產業的策略必須。

As climate and natural constraints continue to reshape commodity markets, wood has been added to the high-risk list of critical raw materials. The report concludes that resilience, traceability and circular procurement are rapidly moving from voluntary commitments to strategic imperatives for the global forestry-dependent industry.